Page 12 - Economic Outlook Romania 2019

Solid wages to still keep things moving

Salaries pushed higher by Retail sales softer but not in Consumers turning cautious
generous state wage policy free fall on investment decisions

30 18 -70 (major purchase intentions over 12 months) -40
Nominal wage growth, %YoY
25 14 -75 -45

20 10
-80 -50

15 6
-85 -55
10
2
-90 -60
5
-2
-95 -65
0 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 4Q18
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Total economy Public sector Private sector Fuel Non-food Car House Home improvements(rhs)
Food Retail sales (% YoY)

2-digit wage growth... Shifting into lower gear... Big ticket items…
Due to minimum pay hikes, ... on higher interest rates, ... just took a turn south in

pay increases for state weaker RON, uncertain 4Q17 as the monetary policy
employees. Concerns about outlook for taxes. All affected transmission improved and

competitiveness in labour consumers’ morale despite could be underestimated
intensive sectors. good job prospects. (65% of lending in RON)

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