Page 19 - Economic Outlook Romania 2019

Romania: much more exposed to headwinds.

Twin deficits: under pressure.

Only CEE country posting a Burning fiscal buffers during Unbalanced GDP growth. No
widening C/A deficit. very good times improvement in potential.

5.0 2.0 8.0 Others (ppt)
1.0
4.0 7.0 Consumption (ppt)
C/A % GDP 0.0 6.9
3.0
-1.0 6.0 GDP (%, YoY)
2.0 -2.0
-3.0 5.0
1.0 4.8
-4.0 4.4
0.0 4.0 4.1
-5.0 3.8
-1.0 -6.0 3.0
-7.0 Structural budget
-2.0 deficit % GDP
-8.0 2.0
-3.0
-9.0 1.0
-4.0
-5.0 0.0
Bulgaria Czechia Hungary Poland Romania
2014 2017 2018 2010 2015 2018

Trade balance widening… Fiscal consolidation reversed Growth exposed to sentiment

…resulted from ultra Three consecutive years Consumers more prudent despite
accommodative policy mix and targeting 3.0% of GDP budget better job prospects and higher
unaddressed structural issues deficit. Most exposed in CEE to a savings. Political/geopolitical noise

hampering competitiveness. rating downgrade when a could affect the morale and derail

downturn arrives. the growth story.

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