Page 22 - Economic Outlook Romania 2019
P. 22

Rating Outlook: pick your scenario






         Agency                         Upgrade Drivers                                         Downgrade Drivers

                       Sustained improvement in the fiscal and   Persisting negative institutional and fiscal
                          external metrics                                         trends (rising susceptibility to event risk)
         Moody’s  Higher policy predictability and                             Rising macroeconomic balances

         (12 Jul)         credibility                                           Further material deterioration in balance of
                       Institutional effectiveness                                payments and international investment
                       Structural reforms (improving business                     position
                          environment and infrastructure gap)


                       Stabilisation of institutional environment  Eroding independence of key institutions
                       Sustained headway with budgetary                        Policy reversals (significant increase in
         S&P              consolidation (firmly downward trajectory                general government deficits, debt and

         (1 Mar)          of net government debt)                                  borrowing costs)
                       Strengthened governance framework                       Re-emergence of external imbalances

                          (predictable and stable macroeconomic                    (widening current account deficit
                          growth and government finances)                          increasingly financed with debt)

                       Reduced risks of macroeconomic                          Persistent high fiscal deficits (rapid increase
                          instability and improved macroeconomic                   in government debt/GDP)
         Fitch            policy credibility                                    Overheating economy or hard landing that

         (10 May)      Implementation of fiscal consolidation                     undermines macroeconomic stability
                          (improving long-term public debt/GDP)

                       Sustained improvement in external
                          finances


         Source: Moody’s, S&P, Fitch, ING
         22
   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   24   25   26   27