Page 3 - Economic Outlook Romania 2019

GDP lower. Why?

Consumer confidence Limited room for fiscal External backdrop is
shifting gradually lower impulse deteriorating

100% -0.5 125 10
20 0 13% 14% 12% 13% 8
90% 120
-1.0 6
14%
15 -5 80% 18% 12% 15% 115
70% 4
-10 17% 15% 14% -1.5 2
10 60% 17% 110
-15 50% -2.0 0
5 105 -2
-20 40% 100 -4
-2.5
0 30% 59% 58% -6
-25 53% 57% 95
20% -8
-5 -30 -3.0
10% 90 -10
-10 -35 0% -3.5
2015 2016 2017 2018
Others Investments RO Manufacturing
Goods, services Wages+social expenditures
Retail sales (YoY%) Consumer confidence (rhs) EZ manufacturing confidence (rhs)
Budget deficit(% of GDP)

Consumers are unlikely to The composition of The soft patch in the
increase their spending budget expenditures is Eurozone doesn’t look

further. Retail sales look pro-cyclical and leaves transitory. Germany
on a downward trend limited fiscal space to narrowly avoided
prop-up the economy technical recession in the

when a downturn occurs fourth quarter of 2019

3