Page 6 - Economic Outlook Romania 2019
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USA: Growth cycle peaking, headwinds ahead
Best recession forecaster: The second-longest US UST Spread recession
the shape of US yield curve expansion on record probability 12M ahead
4.00 1.0 140 50
45
3.00 120
0.8
40
2.00
100 35
0.6
1.00
80 30
0.00
0.4 25
60
-1.00 20
0.2
-2.00 40 15
10
-3.00 0.0 20
5
0 0
US recession 10Y - 2Y (bps)
Self-fulfilling prophecy Firing on all cylinders The ‘R’ word
Fed Powell downplayed Unemployment is near Yield curve inversion preceded
the importance of the record lows, GDP growth all nine recessions since 1955.
yield curve. We look for on track and inflation is Budget deficit at $1 trillion USD
another rate hike in above target. Fed is in 2019 (5%/GDP) can help
2019. unlikely to change course. prolong the economic cycle.
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